How Mesa Market Reduced Overstock Losses by 52% with Demand Forecasting

The Challenge

Mesa Market is a Phoenix specialty retail operation with two locations. Buying decisions were made the same way they'd always been made: look at last year's numbers, factor in gut feel, take vendor suggestions into account, and place the order. The method had worked well enough at a smaller scale, but with two locations and an expanding SKU catalog, it was producing increasingly expensive errors.

Seasonal overstock was costing $6,000 per month in markdowns and dead inventory. Products that vendors were excited to push weren't necessarily what Phoenix customers were going to buy. Meanwhile, top-selling items would sell out and stay out for weeks because reorder wasn't triggered until it was too late. The buyer was making consequential decisions with incomplete information.

The Solution

Majoto built a demand forecasting system that integrates directly with the point-of-sale system across both locations. The system analyzes sales velocity by product category and SKU, then overlays local event calendars, competitor activity signals, and seasonal trend data to generate weekly buying recommendations.

The buyer now opens a data dashboard each Monday instead of a spreadsheet. Recommendations are ranked by priority, reorder alerts for fast-moving items, markdown suggestions for slow movers, and seasonal buy recommendations timed ahead of the demand curve. Decisions are still the buyer's to make, but they're made with the full picture.

The Results

• Overstock losses reduced by 52%
• $3,400 per month in markdown savings
• Stockout incidents down 67%
• Buyer shifted from spreadsheets and gut feel to a data-driven weekly process